Author Topic: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State  (Read 297 times)

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Offline mrzurnaci

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An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« on: July 04, 2017, 10:45:17 PM »
http://www.newsweek.com/independent-kurdistan-would-be-failed-state-631778

By Michael Rubin On 7/4/17 at 11:44 AM

This article first appeared on the American Enterprise Institute site.

On June 28, Masoud Barzani, the de facto president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, placed an op-ed in the Washington Post, titled, “The time has come for Iraqi Kurdistan to make its choice on independence.”

He writes, “Iraqi Kurdistan’s exercise of its right to self-determination threatens no one and may make a volatile region more stable,” and concludes:

After a century of trying, it is time to recognize that the forced inclusion of the Kurds in Iraq has not worked for us or for the Iraqis. We ask that the United States and the international community respect the democratic decision of Kurdistan’s people. In the long run, both Iraq and Kurdistan will be better off.

Do Kurds have a right to be independent? Yes.

But is Barzani correct that Kurdish independence would make the region more stable? Absolutely not, although much of the reason for that lies with Barzani and not the Kurds he claims to represent.

To justify the notion that independence would be an easy, beneficial thing, many Kurdish officials cite the amicable divorce between Czechs and Slovaks that led to the dissolution of Czechoslovakia.

However, there are many examples that arose out of guerrilla and military struggles that would perhaps be more analogous: Sudan and South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, Serbia and Kosovo, and Indonesia and East Timor, to name a few. In none of those cases has the separatist entity which won independence become a success by any objective criteria.

In Kurdistan Rising (available in English and Kurdish ), I outline not the case for or against Kurdish independence (because that’s a matter for the Kurds to decide), but rather all the issues and complexities that Kurdish leaders have failed to address which will determine whether or not an independent Kurdistan succeeds.

Here are just a few:

    Water-sharing agreements. Barzani says that the rump Iraqi state and Kurdistan can work out a modality, but the water-sharing agreements — some of which are more than 70 years old — also include Turkey and Syria. In the past, disputes over the Tigris and Euphrates flow have caused a few skirmishes and brought countries to the brink of war. Re-writing those agreements will be easier said than done.

    Borders. Barzani says that independence will be limited to Iraqi Kurdistan alone, but he proposes a referendum throughout territory still disputed with Baghdad. In the Czech Republic and Slovakia, citizens and governments agreed on borders immediately. Barzani’s unilateralism promises a decades-long dispute which might turn Iraq and Kurdistan into adversaries rather than partners.

    Citizenship. Will Kurds living in Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq have Kurdish citizenship? And will Arabs living in Kurdistan be allowed Iraqi citizenship? Will dual citizenship be allowed? What if one state allows it but the other does not? Could the referendum set the stage for ethnic cleansing? Will Kurdish officials serving in the Iraqi government be forced to resign, losing the influence and protection their participation in Baghdad brought?

    Economy. Iraqi Kurdistan believes it has great oil resources, but an opaque market riven with corruption and nepotism has already led some international oil companies to write off their losses and flee. Iraqi Kurdistan often cannot pay its civil servants and may be upwards of $20 billion in debt.

Meanwhile, arbitration rulings in London and elsewhere have consistently found against the Kurdistan Regional Government to the tune of billions of dollars more. Iraqi Kurdistan has also claimed 17 percent of Iraq’s oil revenue. Would it accept 17 percent of Iraq’s debt?

When Barzani’s government tried to float a bond on the international market, the terms offered were far below those won by the Iraqi government and even the debt-ridden Côte d’Ivoire. Add into this that none of the top 20 oil and gas producers is landlocked like Kurdistan is. Would Kurdistan sink before it even got the chance to float? Unfortunately, the answer is yes.

    Military. For all the lionization of the Peshmerga, the Kurdish military, they really are no different that the Shi’ite militias which Barzani so regularly criticizes. They are more militia than army, divided by politics and owing loyalty to individual powerbrokers rather than a professional ministry.

When a country has oil but a military geared more to personality than the state, the result is civil war. Don’t believe me? Just ask the South Sudanese. Even if Kurdistan were to truly unify the Peshmerga and intelligence services, what about the air force?

Even if Baghdad and Erbil became best of friends, what about Iran and Turkey’s posture to Kurdistan? Turkey believes it can treat Barzani as a client and control Kurdistan as a client state. They may not like independence, but they could work with it, and probably continue to occupy parts as they already do. Iran fears the precedent more, however, and may stop at nothing to see the Kurds fail.

Don’t be surprised if the Iranian government is already formulating plans to retire Barzani and his sons permanently. Regardless, Kurdistan could become the stage for the Middle East’s newest proxy battle.

Barzani may see himself as the father of a nation, but his legacy may not be what he expects. He long ago had a choice: Would he be remembered as a Nelson Mandela or a Yasser Arafat? African National Congress leader Mandela put deep-seeded political animosities aside in order to build a new South Africa.

Unlike Barzani who refused to step down at the end of his presidential term, Mandela transferred power, setting a precedent for transition necessary for any aspiring democracy. He became recognized as a statesmen on the world stage.

Arafat, in contrast, used his power to continue petty political vendettas. Like Barzani, he embezzled billions of dollars and left Palestinians deeply divided, their institutions and finances in tatters.

The Kurds may go ahead with their referendum and they will win. But, unless and until Kurdistan has leadership willing to put Kurdistan above family and personal finance, then it will squander a historic chance for freedom.



Offline nejepnerast

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2017, 12:34:48 AM »
It is either Zero or 100  :mfr_lol:.

I want to read one article that says life will be ok . Michael Rubin rubbish is know to everyone he never published ONE article that is mildly pro kurd  . Just another hired pen . 

Offline mrzurnaci

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2017, 02:11:17 PM »
It is either Zero or 100  :mfr_lol:.

I want to read one article that says life will be ok . Michael Rubin rubbish is know to everyone he never published ONE article that is mildly pro kurd  . Just another hired pen . 

how is he wrong though?

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2017, 02:11:17 PM »

Offline nejepnerast

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2017, 11:50:41 AM »
how is he wrong though?

I could go through the article and present a contrary view , but it is pointless . Neutrality does not exist in his writing . Would Kurdistan be a successful state  ? No . Would kurdistan be a failed state like iraq , syrian ? No , it will be definitly better than Iraq and that is progress . The truth is always between the two extreme .

Offline Ezidi Kurd

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2017, 12:27:54 PM »
Michael Rubin is a great man. He is NOT against the Kurds. He is against Barzanistan and against the Sunni Muslim GENOCIDAL terrorist midget Barzani and his JASH tribe.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2017, 12:31:47 PM by Ezidi Kurd »

Offline KingA

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2017, 06:38:10 PM »
Michael Rubin is a great man. He is NOT against the Kurds. He is against Barzanistan and against the Sunni Muslim GENOCIDAL terrorist midget Barzani and his JASH tribe.

We might hate Suni Muslims and we will not have any problem with that. Most of Assyrian are Christans with some Atheists. But when you hate Kurdish Suni muslims (90% of your people are Suni Muslims) I guess you will have an issue here lol. Even the most leftist Kurds such as YPG or PKK, they are still Muslims.  You better join Shiia Muslims (still muslims) or Assyrians :shades:

Offline Ezidi Kurd

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2017, 02:24:41 PM »
We might hate Suni Muslims and we will not have any problem with that. Most of Assyrian are Christans with some Atheists. But when you hate Kurdish Suni muslims (90% of your people are Suni Muslims) I guess you will have an issue here lol. Even the most leftist Kurds such as YPG or PKK, they are still Muslims.  You better join Shiia Muslims (still muslims) or Assyrians :shades:
What kind of provocative statements are here? Ezdi were, are and will be always Kurds. Like PKK was is and always will be a pan-Kurdish organisation. The ideology of PKK has nothing to do with Islam. PKK is more Ezdi than Muslim. I do consider PKK Kurds as Ezdi Kurds, since all all our were Ezdi, Yezidism is our origin, our roots. And I'm sure that in the near future millions I say millions Kurds will be officially considered as Ezdi (Kurds).

Kurds need unity and not separation!

Everything is better than Sunni Islam, Americans, Jews and Turks.

Nobody is going to fool the Kurds. I say NOBODY, Kurds aren't retards, we are true Aryans. And ancient Aryans were not fools.

I have always been pro-Persian against Sunni Muslims, Americans, Turks and Jews. And as an PAN-Aryanist I will be always pro-Persian. I'm sure that Kurds and Persians have the same destiny and those who play against the Kurds will pay the heavy price.

Nothing is how it looks. Things are very different than what we hear in mainstream media like political statements, twitter etc.

Offline Ezidi Kurd

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2017, 02:27:51 PM »
It is like PLATO said. We live in a cave and see only shadows.


Real Aryan Kurds know very well what is going on. There are 2 types of people in this world. Friends of Kurds and enemies of Kurds. What I have to say is that American & disgusting Semitic Jews are not the friends of the Kurds.

Kurds are prepared to sacrifice millions of our Aryan souls for Kurdistan. At the end of the day, millions will die, but Great Kurdistan will be free. And our enemies will pay double the price for what they did to Kurds.



« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 02:33:07 PM by Ezidi Kurd »

Offline Cascade

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2017, 03:25:59 AM »
I could go through the article and present a contrary view , but it is pointless . Neutrality does not exist in his writing . Would Kurdistan be a successful state  ? No . Would kurdistan be a failed state like iraq , syrian ? No , it will be definitly better than Iraq and that is progress . The truth is always between the two extreme .
I pretty much agree with this.
It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. - Charles Darwin

Offline mrzurnaci

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2017, 04:54:31 PM »
I could go through the article and present a contrary view , but it is pointless . Neutrality does not exist in his writing . Would Kurdistan be a successful state  ? No . Would kurdistan be a failed state like iraq , syrian ? No , it will be definitly better than Iraq and that is progress . The truth is always between the two extreme .

Well Nej, I can say this. I'll support an independent Kurdistan but which one? :)

Offline Ezidi Kurd

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Re: An Independent Kurdistan Would Be A Failed State
« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2017, 07:01:33 PM »
Well Nej, I can say this. I'll support an independent Kurdistan but which one? :)
There is only 1 Kurdistan and that is Great Kurdistan.

It doesn't matter which part will be independent first, even if it is on the MOON. At the end of the day all parts of Kurdistan will join together.

Not sure which part will become independent first, maybe Rojava will be independent first or maybe Ezdixan (Shengal), but eventually all parts will join together. I'm sure that Rojava and Ezdixan will be together, because Rojava Kurds from Qamishli and Ezdi Kurds from Shengal/Shexan (Ezdixan) belong tot the same type Kurmanji Kurds. Related Kurmanji tribes.

 

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